Coastal Retreat and the California Coastal Commission

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Coastal Retreat and the California Coastal Commission

Postby mpallamary » Thu Feb 07, 2019 9:27 am

Here is an interesting article that should be of interest to anyone who works along the coast.

https://www.californiaeminentdomainrepo ... d-70671141

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Re: Coastal Retreat and the California Coastal Commission

Postby LS_8750 » Thu Feb 07, 2019 10:37 am

I saw that a couple weeks ago on Linkedin.

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Re: Coastal Retreat and the California Coastal Commission

Postby E_Page » Fri Feb 08, 2019 11:27 am

The one commenting reader of the article asks the obvious question for those who actually look at the data from reliable sources.

NOAA/NOS tide station data records show an average rate of 0.54'/century of rise along the CA coast. If you look at broader data across the Pacific, you would see that rise is generally greater on small land masses. Meaning that isolated islands tend to settle. There are two CA coastal stations which show a rate of greater than 1' per century. One is on a sand spit (North Spit) and the other on an offshore island (Rincon Island). Remove the data of those and the average SLR is 0.44' per century. The historical data (average per station being about 63 year span & two more than 100 yrs as of 2015) shows no significant changes in rate over that time.

As a matter of policy, CA has chosen to adopt a SLR model based on the so-called hockey-stick graph developed by East Anglia University and famously exposed as having been based on fraudulent data a few years back.

I sat through a SLR presentation developed by CA govt staff 2 or 3 years ago. In that, they showed the general predictions of, IIRC 4 different models. 3 were pretty close to each other and generally reflective of the NOS data, while CA's model used for official policy showed, as the reader on the blog linked by Mike observed, shows a SLR trend of 3 to 9 times that of the other (credible) models. The presenters, who fervently believe in the CA model, seemed to sense no irony in that comparison.

As I recall, the East Anglia "hockey stick" model came out, or was heralded in the pop-news cycle about 20 years ago, and the emails by the lead scientists who created the model discussing the fraudulent use of the data leaked 8 to 10 years ago. Even if one would dismiss the leaks as false and accept the model as reliable, shouldn't we have seen actual official data on a worldwide, or at least regional levels to reflect that model. Shouldn't we have already seen 0.6' to nearly 2' of SLR and the associated crises along our coasts by now?

I would ask for forgiveness for asking seemingly logical questions about this, but forgiveness for doubting the base doctrine, much less the sources of data and science underlying this SLR model is not present within the SLR orthodoxy.
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Re: Coastal Retreat and the California Coastal Commission

Postby land butcher » Fri Feb 08, 2019 11:46 am

I have done some research on this so called global warming and determined that it's mostly junk science, massive interpolations of scanty data, discarding data that didn't fit their agenda, moving the ocean temp sensors from the front to the back of the ships, and the probable error is bigger than their predicted rise in temps. A recent article headlined a crack in a glacier that, if it breaks off into the ocean, could cause massive flooding. That's like throwing a ice cube into my pool and worrying it will overflow onto the deck.
CA govt has too many agencies that are run by appointed persons that have an agenda and don't care if their views are backed up by facts or not. This is just another case of CA govt taking control from the people and giving it to govt.

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